Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x858b3eabb960271f690b9f3ded201bff9fc11f5b6661dd258f01eee3de35c24a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 24c | 846.51$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.68 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 251.2$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 58c | 249.04$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.64 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 237.1$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 70c | 220.38$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.11 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed Yes | 70c | 193$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 188.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 32c | 179.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed Yes | 57c | 175.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 28c | 171.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.67 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 63c | 157.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 30c | 122.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 119.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 67c | 115.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 102.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 23c | 97.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 94.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 34c | 84.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 13c | 84.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 66c | 80.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…1889backed No | 50c | 72.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 57c | 69.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 20c | 61.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 47c | 59.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 67c | 59.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 33c | 59.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 56.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 72c | 55.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 34c | 55.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 77c | 51.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 66c | 50.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ca…f531backed No | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 44.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 28c | 42.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 55c | 40.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked Yes | 71c | 39.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 42c | 37.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 32c | 33.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 62c | 26.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 67c | 23.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 73c | 23.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 77c | 22.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 72c | 22.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 58c | 21.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 80c | 21.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6185…6b22backed No | 74c | 20.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 67c | 19.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 65c | 18.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…a891backed Yes | 80c | 17.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 16.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c98…d2d1backed No | 76c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or higher on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.