Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25caa642b941e5be2d1846a4a83cb8540115be05723d15d2c02adba55964f106
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 28c | 4,250$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.34 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 30c | 2,625$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.59 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked No | 69c | 2,008$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.49 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked No | 70c | 1,435$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.54 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…b417backed No | 70c | 326.02$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86be…4490backed Yes | 31c | 309.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 69c | 299.98$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.99 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed No | 70c | 288.17$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 69c | 249.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 31c | 247.38$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 31c | 185.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 70c | 117.84$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 70c | 117.84$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 31c | 108.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 70c | 101.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 69cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 97.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 31c | 92.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +32%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 69c | 83.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed No | 68c | 54.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Yes | 22c | 47.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…6e76backed Yes | 31c | 40.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 30.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 73c | 22.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 69c | 20.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…0306backed No | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 76c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC end in a draw?this page
- Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-12?Yes won
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.