Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-05-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2606d3d801816f1c8e507f148779beeee0652ca361925a5d06bfdac1bf2d8347
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 2,850$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.82 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed No | 72c | 2,222$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.16 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…8020backed Yes | 28c | 2,161$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 30c | 1,920$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.07 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 29c | 1,750$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.5 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 75c | 1,482$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.88 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 1,479$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.46 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 30c | 1,273$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 1,167$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.4 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5019…f8b7backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…2282backed Yes | 9c | 557.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 28c | 461.88$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5392…d2ecbacked Yes | 30c | 399.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 29c | 350$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Yes | 29c | 337.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a82…8a6ebacked No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 79c | 283.11$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 163.33$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…57afbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 155.75$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 71c | 140.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked Yes | 30c | 119.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 34c | 89.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 71c | 88.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3db…97a6backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 71c | 65.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 32c | 62.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 17cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 60.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…ae5bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed No | 71c | 46.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18df…fa22backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 70c | 40.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 28c | 40.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 63c | 36.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 72c | 29.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked No | 71c | 28.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 72c | 27.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked No | 70c | 25.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 70c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed No | 70c | 15.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 72c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 72c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked No | 70c | 14.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…a8a1backed No | 70c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-05-03?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-05-03?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.