Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-05-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82183a2043cd20ae59c1c20f2277c5a8043b5a535b63d0c7f7d5edcaf80bab4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed No | 57c | 2,632$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed No | 59c | 1,359$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.48 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 51c | 1,309$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.08 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…0eaabacked No | 28c | 1,232$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Yes | 80c | 863.6$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 65c | 811$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.53 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 706.42$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.02 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 69c | 603.6$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.12 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 27c | 555$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes | 41c | 555$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.45 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 25c | 525.79$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.29 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Yes | 40c | 502.49$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.24 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 48c | 415.04$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.38 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 52c | 399.97$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.99 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 54c | 245.87$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.27 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 54c | 226.73$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.43 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Yes | 48c | 212.39$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 47c | 200.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…633bbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 47c | 189.53$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6013…9826backed Yes | 74c | 135.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7454…57f2backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 41c | 127$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Yes | 66c | 113.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6309…1f50backed No | 24c | 112.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…21b3backed Yes | 46c | 110.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7a…9ca2backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 60c | 108$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +12.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 34c | 102.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked Yes | 73c | 92.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4c…ad1bbacked Yes | 77c | 90.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 75c | 86.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 30c | 85.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed Yes | 49c | 82.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…ae5bbacked Yes | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Yes | 58c | 78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked No | 19c | 71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 15c | 70.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 52c | 64.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Yes | 54c | 62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…679dbacked Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 51c | 49.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yes | 44c | 45.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 41c | 42.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 47c | 41.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc060…2a5abacked Yes | 76c | 32.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 48c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.5wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 42c | 25.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 54c | 25.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 54c | 22.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229a…2a75backed Yes | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-05-03?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?No won
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-05-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.