Premier League · resolved market
Will Newcastle vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2624b41a9a18e14d06383c4265cfec268525af4b50d0f556a3f21352002be635
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 9c | 1,820$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.57 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 6c | 657.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 435.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 26c | 423.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 74c | 413.4$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.98 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 27c | 185.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…375abacked Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc54c…7ceabacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed No | 74c | 44.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 25c | 42.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 24c | 42.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…9f7fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…4413backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…7826backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 466 | 60.5%282 W · 184 L | +30.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed No | 74c | 33.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 362 | 59.1%214 W · 148 L | +23.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf3…d220backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f01…84c7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cc…0990backed No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-26?No won
- Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.