Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88fa8538367c1af90a482f137ae4b8dcc4b8eeb788bd4ede2d8fb88e624f048b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Yes | 27c | 44,774$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,000 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…339bbacked No | 73c | 26,924$19,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,269.52 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 73c | 11,072$8,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,003.16 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 74c | 5,591$4,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.72 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 28c | 4,334$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.42 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 76c | 3,251$2,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.05 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 72c | 1,447$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.53 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 72c | 766.39$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.89 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…11b5backed Yes | 27c | 709.74$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.63 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked No | 72c | 499.93$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 75c | 418.44$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.61 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e0…68a8backed Yes | 25c | 399.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…f263backed Yes | 13c | 398.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…69b2backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…9780backed No | 76c | 328.87$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4707…7e5bbacked Yes | 26c | 288.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…9788backed Yes | 26c | 223.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb680…c893backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5679…d458backed Yes | 27c | 192.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ae…dff2backed Yes | 11c | 187.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed No | 74c | 186.13$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed No | 75c | 175$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 74c | 107.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 466 | 60.5%282 W · 184 L | +30.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d2…f555backed No | 75c | 107$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 182 | 60.4%110 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5272…f0afbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x716a…f6cfbacked Yes | 28c | 89.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…40b8backed Yes | 16c | 82.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6743…4ccbbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 327 | 37.6%123 W · 204 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed No | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 362 | 59.1%214 W · 148 L | +23.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked No | 74c | 67.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc8…5671backed No | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb565…bc27backed No | 75c | 60.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +128%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…9e51backed No | 75c | 59.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed51…9147backed Yes | 26c | 59.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7733…6467backed No | 75c | 38.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd19…1b5ebacked Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 605 | 57.5%348 W · 257 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…4c0bbacked No | 78c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83ec…0a71backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-26?this page
- Will Newcastle vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?No won
- Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.