Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Preußen Münster vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2631c263bfa6e563eece126f58ff978c1f5c77fe4f66d0f0d3635578bda90510
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 9,482$4,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,301.29 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 53c | 9,440$5,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,436.79 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 22c | 1,313$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.94 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 874.67$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.82 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 17c | 720.71$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 32c | 716.85$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.94 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88d…f708backed Over | 14c | 338.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.29 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 46c | 232.89$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.18 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 57c | 210$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 43c | 202.82$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.61 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b39…65adbacked Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…3c89backed Over | 59c | 199.75$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 65c | 153$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 16c | 151.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.05 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 64c | 128.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed Over | 54c | 95.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…8cf6backed Over | 54c | 94.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 75c | 80.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 25c | 68.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 46c | 68.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked Over | 43c | 67.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 26c | 58.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8701…2075backed Over | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25d4…26fdbacked Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over | 36c | 28.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8652…93cebacked Over | 53c | 27.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 56c | 19.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Preußen Münster vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 4.5this page
- SC Preußen Münster vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: DSC Arminia Bielefeld (-1.5)SC Preußen Münster won
- Spread: SC Preußen Münster (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.