CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs ALKA - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2635c1c8a4921600f21c924396ae5d9774e038213fb06c8fd2eb73e2a1e36e2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keydof Keyd, ALKA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Keyd | 69c | 1,680$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.71 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed ALKA | 29c | 999.88$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.9 | 2,456 | 44.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L | -67.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked ALKA | 20c | 866.4$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.78 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed ALKA | 56c | 694.09$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.39 | 1,041 | 53.1%553 W · 488 L | +63.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed ALKA | 33c | 674.5$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.84 | 1,431 | 39%558 W · 873 L | -41.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Keyd | 58c | 518.99$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.16 | 521 | 50.3%262 W · 259 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7e…2ef7backed Keyd | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 182 | 59.9%109 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Keyd | 68c | 497.4$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.67 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Keyd | 71c | 226.08$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 1,790 | 59.2%1,060 W · 730 L | +106.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed ALKA | 17c | 174.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Keyd | 68c | 149$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 514 | 46.9%241 W · 273 L | -22.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked ALKA | 36c | 146.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 2,672 | 47.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked ALKA | 45c | 141.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked ALKA | 36c | 135.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 3,544 | 29.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L | -289.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Keyd | 64c | 124$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 245 | 58%142 W · 103 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked ALKA | 37c | 122.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked ALKA | 28c | 94.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 1,890 | 41.9%791 W · 1,099 L | -71.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed ALKA | 32c | 91.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2,554 | 41.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L | -116.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed ALKA | 41c | 70.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,110 | 54.2%602 W · 508 L | +38.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Keyd | 61c | 66.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Keyd | 49c | 60.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked ALKA | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,267 | 45.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L | -85.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked ALKA | 39c | 56.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Keyd | 69c | 55.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 418 | 53.6%224 W · 194 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked ALKA | 31c | 55.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2,530 | 34.6%876 W · 1,654 L | -193.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Keyd | 41c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 1,632 | 43.2%705 W · 927 L | -32.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Keyd | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 207 | 42.5%88 W · 119 L | -17.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5f…31d1backed Keyd | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Keyd | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 2,143 | 47.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L | -61.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked ALKA | 37c | 39.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2,195 | 43.1%946 W · 1,249 L | -68.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…2968backed Keyd | 49c | 36.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked ALKA | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 3,949 | 36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L | -201.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Keyd | 69c | 26.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 241 | 52.3%126 W · 115 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Keyd | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed ALKA | 52c | 20.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Keyd | 73c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1,142 | 54.4%621 W · 521 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Keyd | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs ALKA - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 PlayoffsKeyd won
- Counter-Strike: Keyd vs ALKA - Map 2 WinnerKeyd won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map Handicap: Keyd (-1.5) vs ALKA (+1.5)Keyd won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.