Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2676a5b347f1f15d70b2ad360deb006216cca1b4234f809695b65dd4381184a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…3b0ebacked Yes | 0c | 21,298$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 716.89$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.86 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 286.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38de…60f0backed Yes | 19c | 258.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 17c | 225.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 14c | 211.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 23c | 209.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 20c | 194$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…5a48backed Yes | 21c | 181.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…873cbacked Yes | 21c | 150.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 136.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaba…23f5backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 120.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 120.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 17c | 115.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 106.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 75c | 105.46$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 13c | 96.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 16c | 84.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 21c | 66.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 21c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 24c | 63.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…f325backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 44c | 57.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 18c | 57.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 78c | 51.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 25c | 44.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 77c | 36.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 34.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 28.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d7…9600backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 73c | 21.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…d509backed No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +9.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on February 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or higher on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or below on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.