Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x267d83896f036d3f670cab1ff660a08a9613ec8eeb28051b20b33c193144f01e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 2,399$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,371.07 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 77c | 2,071$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 23c | 700$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 34c | 115.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…e265backed Over | 51c | 84.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 23c | 77.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 23c | 66.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb4…413bbacked Under | 23c | 49.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e23…f767backed Over | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7d…596abacked Over | 80c | 24.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95d1…817ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 80c | 18.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…5ee5backed Over | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Augsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Augsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.