Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb68dfa5682fdfcc7dfe0a200b43f500757da2a4a259eb2b913a715630895f289
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 31c | 15,000$4,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,650 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 46c | 7,999$3,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,319.64 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 7,895$5,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,510.99 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 53c | 2,645$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 47c | 2,342$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 46c | 1,885$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.95 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 33c | 1,533$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.35 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 52c | 1,498$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.03 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…c3eabacked Under | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Over | 54c | 804.38$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.37 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 537.63$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.22 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 379.3$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.41 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 46c | 217.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Under | 48c | 208.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.47 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…dc3dbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 55c | 176.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 162.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 48c | 160$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 48c | 160$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 51c | 158.82$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0c…f470backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 69c | 82.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +13.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | +11.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 45c | 39.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f21…dc40backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Under | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 66c | 22.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Augsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Augsburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FC Augsburg (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.