NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Kings: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26841ef9fc25eb61db5b3b6933879073e4ad65267ff9856d5926882317033720
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,441 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Over | 57c | 3,450$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.48 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 1,195$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.34 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Under | 43c | 870$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.1 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 568.97$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.97 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Under | 53c | 562.73$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 59c | 535$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.81 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 41c | 488.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.32 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 427.16$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 43c | 394$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.42 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 56c | 375$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 43c | 330$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 43c | 218.39$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd99…c06cbacked Over | 57c | 218.39$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 43c | 165$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 43c | 147.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Over | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 42c | 101.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…6ce2backed Over | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…176bbacked Under | 43c | 93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 43c | 82.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 40c | 68.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0316…e764backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…4167backed Under | 38c | 55.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 56c | 53.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 45c | 48.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Under | 42c | 46.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 44c | 45.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 55c | 37.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…39b7backed Under | 55c | 30.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 41c | 29.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf86…b1c1backed Over | 56c | 26.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…2d2bbacked Under | 45c | 24.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…ba10backed Under | 55c | 20.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…7593backed Under | 55c | 20.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…80d0backed Under | 55c | 20.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Kings: O/U 5.5this page
- Canadiens vs. KingsCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Kings: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Kings: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.