MLB · resolved market
Tigers vs. Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x269d2ac5bba6d2aaa7496049e1c39bc4e1f27b5e760a0a6af542504515e9e2cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astrosof Tigers, Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Tigers | 48c | 5,616$2,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,695.6 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Astros | 52c | 5,390$2,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600.21 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Tigers | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.99 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce9…ea32backed Tigers | 48c | 2,412$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Astros | 48c | 2,219$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161.85 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Astros | 51c | 1,901$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.73 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Tigers | 69c | 1,617$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.73 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Astros | 42c | 1,567$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.76 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Astros | 50c | 1,231$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.37 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Astros | 52c | 1,038$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.46 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tigers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Tigers | 49c | 998.73$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.54 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Astros | 55c | 674.98$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.05 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Astros | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…1349backed Tigers | 53c | 552.83$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Tigers | 46c | 541.32$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.66 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…a5fbbacked Astros | 49c | 461.22$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…773abacked Astros | 49c | 438.78$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Astros | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…73e8backed Tigers | 53c | 347.17$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Tigers | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Tigers | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2a…1e46backed Tigers | 32c | 235.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Astros | 50c | 208.6$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.42 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Tigers | 48c | 208.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tigers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Tigers | 52c | 165$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Astros | 50c | 149.43$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Tigers | 47c | 144.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Astros | 53c | 131.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Astros | 66c | 124.78$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Astros | 39c | 121.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Tigers | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Tigers | 42c | 97.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Astros | 54c | 97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Astros | 51c | 96.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Astros | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Tigers | 52c | 67.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Tigers | 48c | 53.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Tigers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Tigers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Astros | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Astros | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Astros | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Astros | 54c | 34.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Tigers | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Tigers | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Tigers | 48c | 25.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.