Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Texas Longhorns vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 164.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26d0e179c3d781598363cb8deb55660a69647abe57d66c9b717136e6a965973d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,494 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 50c | 16,000$7,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,080 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1e…8972backed Under | 51c | 12,043$6,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,116.49 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…18f9backed Under | 50c | 7,930$3,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,965 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 1,798$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.86 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 49c | 1,397$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.28 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 50c | 431.19$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.6 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 52c | 301.72$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 49c | 253.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.45 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Over | 51c | 140.82$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 225 | 44.9%101 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 50c | 116.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 57c | 106.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 50c | 71.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4eb…05b5backed Over | 49c | 41.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 51c | 41.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005b…2947backed Over | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 65c | 21.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Longhorns vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 164.5this page
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-7.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Texas Longhorns vs. Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks won
- Texas Longhorns vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 163.5Over won
- Texas Longhorns vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 165.5Over won
- Texas Longhorns vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 166.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.