NHL · resolved market
World Championships: USA vs. Switzerland
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26eee1f4fee39b32ac8e78a3932ce4f22be381d96243332eb27a318000c855ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Switzerlandof USA, Switzerland
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked USA | 15c | 1,503$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Switzerland | 63c | 986.57$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.36 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c3…bdf4backed USA | 47c | 215.21$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141a…95a9backed Switzerland | 53c | 200.21$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…9f92backed USA | 38c | 159.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x70a6…a2ebbacked Switzerland | 60c | 84.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812c…b81fbacked USA | 45c | 81.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…553ebacked USA | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked USA | 16c | 68.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Switzerland | 58c | 51.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Switzerland | 76c | 38.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…377bbacked Switzerland | 60c | 36.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Switzerland | 61c | 32.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Switzerland | 55c | 32.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…6e99backed Switzerland | 64c | 31.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Switzerland | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf5…e0d5backed Switzerland | 66c | 22.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Switzerland | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.