TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,653
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,690

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,653 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Over44c11,058$4,869 inLost-$4,868.7910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under56c5,463$3,059 inWon+$2,403.724,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Under56c2,594$1,453 inWon+$1,141.5547358.4%276 W · 197 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Under56c1,480$829 inWon+$651.1887750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a09…ab7ebacked Under56c480.02$269 inWon+$211.2110252%53 W · 49 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Under56c357.14$200 inWon+$157.141,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over51c352.79$180 inLost-$179.921,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under49c350.79$172 inWon+$178.94,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under56c180.21$101 inWon+$79.291,00058.8%588 W · 412 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under56c178.57$100 inWon+$78.5740658.4%237 W · 169 L+2.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Under56c178.57$100 inWon+$78.5755259.6%329 W · 223 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under52c69.23$36 inWon+$33.2347345.7%216 W · 257 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under56c44$25 inWon+$19.2111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over36c41$15 inLost-$14.764,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41c8…424fbacked Under56c30.64$17 inWon+$13.4820362.6%127 W · 76 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Under50c26$13 inWon+$1347646.2%220 W · 256 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73bd…b576backed Under56c17.91$10 inWon+$7.8827557.1%157 W · 118 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1821…26a0backed Under67c15$10 inWon+$55455.6%30 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.