TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,970
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,914

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,970 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Kansas City Royals74c1,363$1,004 inWon+$359.292,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins22c708.51$156 inLost-$155.8711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Minnesota Twins19c370$70 inLost-$70.382636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins19c340$66 inLost-$66.068,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins55c310.9$171 inLost-$1714,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals72c310.89$224 inWon+$87.0512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins36c305.57$110 inLost-$110.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins35c267.62$94 inLost-$93.676,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Kansas City Royals64c163$104 inWon+$58.681,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Kansas City Royals65c130.58$85 inWon+$45.717155%94 W · 77 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72f3…d396backed Kansas City Royals64c120$77 inWon+$43.250647%238 W · 268 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed Kansas City Royals65c107.69$70 inWon+$37.6967449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c49…1862backed Kansas City Royals65c61.86$40 inWon+$21.8635353.8%190 W · 163 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Minnesota Twins37c40.54$15 inLost-$1556435.1%198 W · 366 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Kansas City Royals74c18.15$13 inWon+$4.7255645.3%252 W · 304 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.