MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb17d2bb511882af1da3d722fb60b6d3b5c8d10f713383949e7b894d0a2753eaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 23c | 19,188$4,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,378.11 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 76c | 17,523$13,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,124.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Kansas City Royals | 22c | 2,002$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.86 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 72c | 669.12$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 601.23$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.95 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Kansas City Royals | 23c | 582.04$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.46 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 342.23$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 257.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…4537backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 199$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 166$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 160.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…e505backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 137.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Minnesota Twins | 64c | 93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 29c | 76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Minnesota Twins | 74c | 49.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Minnesota Twins | 79c | 47.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 41.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 28.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Minnesota Twins | 74c | 17.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Minnesota Twins | 74c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.