MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c88b1b75a21c9b41d272a2fa254c6e8764dfa620ac88df5ca0c806c045947e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 5,748$2,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,053.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 2,575$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 53c | 1,600$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.67 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 53c | 1,134$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.69 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 53c | 1,024$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.72 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 47c | 1,002$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.06 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 961.2$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.21 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 52c | 747.29$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.79 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 686.23$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.02 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 516.22$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 52c | 513.92$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.77 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 53c | 500.23$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.12 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 54c | 499.98$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.99 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 52c | 480.75$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 55c | 458.8$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.34 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 18c | 360$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 46c | 326.03$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.05 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 53c | 285.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 273.65$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…e183backed Over | 52c | 269.23$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 34c | 244.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 52c | 225.1$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.05 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 210$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 54c | 199$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 187.28$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Over | 54c | 184.04$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 47c | 174$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 37c | 152.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 52c | 144.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 48c | 133$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 55c | 125.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 47c | 105.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 47c | 105.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 71c | 96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 71c | 87.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…1306backed Over | 52c | 82.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 55c | 66.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Under | 47c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Under | 48c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 54c | 35.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 54c | 35.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 52c | 34.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 48c | 32.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 54c | 30.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…93f9backed Under | 45c | 25.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Under | 67c | 23.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…f338backed Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Over | 54c | 22.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 57c | 19.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 4.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.