Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x274c89d01419ebe8b6334a834f46178a1892509cb87d59fd23b4a5fec0f51c7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 68c | 1,836$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.61 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 976.11$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4c…fa01backed Yes | 1c | 921.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 47c | 586.29$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.66 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 42c | 300.89$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.91 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 32c | 218.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 211.63$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.72 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 179.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d9…6b67backed Yes | 9c | 172.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 34c | 165.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 19c | 133.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 130.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 119.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 42c | 115.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 46c | 112.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 29c | 109.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…51d3backed Yes | 25c | 109.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 53c | 102.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 24c | 94.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 26c | 85.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 68.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 34c | 63.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 59.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed No | 32c | 58.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 25c | 56.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 46c | 56.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5c…70e8backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 67c | 49.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 49.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…875fbacked Yes | 32c | 48.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked Yes | 62c | 48.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 47.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 55c | 45.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 24c | 42.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 71c | 42.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed Yes | 37c | 40.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 39.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3b…0353backed No | 41c | 35.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 68c | 34.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 44c | 34.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…e522backed No | 66c | 30.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 66c | 29.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 50c | 27.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 56c | 24.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 21.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 72c | 21.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ee…741dbacked No | 54c | 19.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked No | 78c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.