Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9dd5cbf71021d9f50ec8ef5e9f5107d09d824dc15132417180d39c2b3fe7351
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 32c | 2,000$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.93 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 70c | 1,878$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.82 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 976.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 11c | 955.73$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 38c | 656.16$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.29 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 62c | 632.14$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.28 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 577.82$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2a…17aebacked Yes | 32c | 402.21$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 30c | 393.47$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.05 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 59c | 338.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 43c | 332.41$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.59 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 73c | 262.67$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 40c | 234.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 199.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 39c | 199.88$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 16c | 195.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 20c | 192.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 189.59$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…0a1fbacked Yes | 25c | 182.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 176.93$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 10c | 173.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 38c | 167.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 157.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 30c | 155.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 11c | 142.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f60…4127backed No | 80c | 139.68$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 32c | 136.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 38c | 131.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 80c | 113.59$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 38c | 99.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed Yes | 43c | 97.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 40c | 93.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 41c | 92.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…858bbacked Yes | 18c | 90.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fa…4d49backed Yes | 39c | 88.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 55c | 84.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 77.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 56c | 72.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 62c | 65.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 64.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 60.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5c…70e8backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 60c | 49.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…875fbacked Yes | 38c | 49.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 46.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 61c | 44.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 44.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 63c | 38.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 37.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 60c | 35.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 64c | 34.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 62c | 31.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 62c | 31.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 38c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 65c | 29.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 66c | 29.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 62c | 28.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 72c | 27.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 72c | 26.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 41c | 26.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 60c | 24.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 68c | 20.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 65c | 20.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…4532backed No | 60c | 20.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 19.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 60c | 19.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.