MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27503750774b906b6fd5693fe186b0b87885e7c23f5c188f8c73dd6f966b1fa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Mets | 54c | 4,295$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.38 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 37c | 3,960$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.2 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 2,471$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 1,239$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.85 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Mets | 42c | 524.5$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.63 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 366.71$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.4 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 232.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.71 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 121 | 38%46 W · 75 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 61c | 143.79$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 25c | 99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 96.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed New York Mets | 45c | 68.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked New York Mets | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 39.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked New York Mets | 42c | 39.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)this page
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York MetsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.