MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23b4be9ce16891b47ad440dedba71a4551d55ad4313a89251cbd8f6e284428a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 53c | 12,099$6,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,688.8 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 7,289$3,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,503.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 5,630$2,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,441.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 4,821$2,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,287.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 45c | 3,225$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.26 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 47c | 2,498$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.06 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 2,325$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.05 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 47c | 1,493$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.9 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Over | 53c | 1,110$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.7 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 41c | 675.64$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.31 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 675.47$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.47 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Under | 46c | 530.61$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.08 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 38c | 388$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.56 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 54c | 298.32$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.23 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 44c | 296.59$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 43c | 253.26$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 249$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.29 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 14c | 206.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 198.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 47c | 170.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 47c | 161.12$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 51c | 158.64$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Under | 43c | 153.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 51c | 131.22$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 47c | 128$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 57c | 117.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Under | 45c | 111.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Under | 45c | 98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 57c | 94.33$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 62c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Under | 23c | 83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…9ac2backed Under | 47c | 82.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 61c | 74.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Over | 58c | 66.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 54c | 61.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 62c | 57.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 56.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Under | 46c | 47.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 57c | 41.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 39c | 38.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Under | 45c | 34.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 39c | 31.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 58c | 30.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 60c | 29.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Over | 58c | 28.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…c020backed Under | 44c | 28.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 937 | 73.5%689 W · 248 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York MetsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.