College Football · resolved market
Will Notre Dame beat Louisville?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x275a54a90a88a65045e7d32da0ff6f2cd3580284f48e4d5c0e26b7e18edcfb96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Notre Dameof Notre Dame, Louisville
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Louisville | 22c | 7,083$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.96 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Notre Dame | 78c | 5,362$4,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.22 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Louisville | 15c | 799.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.86 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e948backed Notre Dame | 64c | 703.11$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.12 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Notre Dame | 67c | 685.13$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.09 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed Louisville | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Notre Dame | 68c | 333$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Louisville | 32c | 250$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.69 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Louisville | 31c | 238.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Notre Dame | 68c | 170.38$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Notre Dame | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…4e32backed Louisville | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Notre Dame | 70c | 83.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Notre Dame | 69c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Louisville | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a04…1993backed Louisville | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Louisville | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Louisville | 29c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…822bbacked Louisville | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Louisville | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Notre Dame | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Notre Dame beat Louisville?this page
- Will Notre Dame and Louisville combine for 47 or more points?Over won
- Will Notre Dame beat Louisville by 7 or more points?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.