Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2766b06247e635a8f64b29d809ea33b6fe76e1700fc8a932fedd3393234a8fd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rublevof Rublev, Sonego
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Sonego | 55c | 2,256$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.61 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Sonego | 11c | 1,246$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.4 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Rublev | 72c | 1,002$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.22 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Rublev | 51c | 699.99$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rublev | 70c | 630.84$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.98 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Sonego | 51c | 492.88$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.45 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…78f8backed Sonego | 62c | 475.99$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.11 | 436 | 47.2%206 W · 230 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Rublev | 50c | 410.69$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.44 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rublev | 50c | 377.55$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.02 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Sonego | 27c | 363.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 357 | 30.5%109 W · 248 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Sonego | 49c | 349.31$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.6 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Rublev | 57c | 344.55$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.77 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Rublev | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796c…49dbbacked Rublev | 72c | 273.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Sonego | 44c | 245.07$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rublev | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Rublev | 32c | 186$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Rublev | 54c | 180.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.09 | 509 | 52.1%265 W · 244 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Rublev | 56c | 130.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Sonego | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Rublev | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…d209backed Sonego | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Sonego | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Rublev | 32c | 93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Rublev | 32c | 93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Rublev | 32c | 93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Rublev | 32c | 87.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Rublev | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 181 | 32.6%59 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Rublev | 52c | 74.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c3…75abbacked Rublev | 53c | 66.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…f218backed Rublev | 54c | 54.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 357 | 53.8%192 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Rublev | 80c | 52.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Rublev | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Rublev | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…22b6backed Rublev | 50c | 47.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…5d90backed Rublev | 56c | 45.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 221 | 54.8%121 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Rublev | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecb…e058backed Sonego | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…57a4backed Rublev | 53c | 36.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Rublev | 68c | 35.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…bfddbacked Rublev | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed Sonego | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Sonego | 45c | 25.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Rublev | 55c | 23.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b1…812bbacked Rublev | 59c | 22.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Rublev | 53c | 18.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5)this page
- Barcelona Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Andrey RublevAndrey Rublev won
- Lorenzo Sonego vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sonego vs RublevRublev won
- Sonego vs. Rublev: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sonego vs. Rublev: Match O/U 22.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.