NFL · resolved market
Will the 49ers and Seahawks combine for 50 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2778bedafb3ffc30c95ff093b14a30489d887407622c08266fd76b7f5c2469be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Over | 44c | 2,248$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.41 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Under | 57c | 1,000$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.5 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Under | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Under | 52c | 750$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Under | 56c | 560.72$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Over | 61c | 362.17$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.87 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Over | 44c | 256.86$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.92 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Over | 46c | 225$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Over | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb4…a9bdbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Under | 56c | 198.23$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.74 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Under | 51c | 150$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca9…4ebbbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Over | 45c | 54.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…d05ebacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…797fbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…03e7backed Over | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed Over | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 49ers and Seahawks combine for 50 or more points?this page
- Will the 49ers beat the Seahawks by 4 or more points?49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.