Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Execration vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2784afa6d6ad24bbc0d04e8d711b3ae74c8a798ebb3bc8e9279f0f343c4a5428
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yakult Brothersof Execration, Yakult Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed Execration | 58c | 13,946$8,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,055.43 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Yakult Brothers | 47c | 13,668$6,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,278.97 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…5276backed Execration | 55c | 12,111$6,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,661.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Execration | 40c | 3,551$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.32 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yakult Brothers | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740.16 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yakult Brothers | 45c | 2,680$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.39 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Yakult Brothers | 42c | 2,500$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…de25backed Yakult Brothers | 62c | 955.3$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Yakult Brothers | 46c | 887.77$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.61 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Execration | 38c | 800$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Execration | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Yakult Brothers | 42c | 521.26$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.33 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Yakult Brothers | 61c | 419.67$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.67 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Execration | 39c | 358$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.22 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Yakult Brothers | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yakult Brothers | 77c | 335.14$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Execration | 10c | 320.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Yakult Brothers | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Execration | 15c | 183.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Execration | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Execration | 48c | 116$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 218 | 51.8%113 W · 105 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Yakult Brothers | 43c | 100.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fac…bdd8backed Yakult Brothers | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 134 | 56%75 W · 59 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yakult Brothers | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Yakult Brothers | 62c | 89.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yakult Brothers | 44c | 71.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…9ea9backed Execration | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yakult Brothers | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Execration | 35c | 56.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Yakult Brothers | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf581…0892backed Yakult Brothers | 72c | 27.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5d…99ebbacked Yakult Brothers | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 146 | 68.5%100 W · 46 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Execration vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Execration vs Yakult Brothers (BO3)Yakult Brothers won
- Dota 2: Execration vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 WinnerYakult Brothers won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.