MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27943dd7b0cdbb4aaa6ce276998e41f95dfdb528464c26f692cd9cae63981dee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof New York Mets, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 519.95$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.58 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 17c | 237$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Mets | 36c | 199.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.73 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 188.81$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed New York Mets | 38c | 171.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 102.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 33c | 102.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked New York Mets | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed New York Mets | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed New York Mets | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed New York Mets | 37c | 83.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed New York Mets | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked New York Mets | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 60.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed New York Mets | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Mets | 37c | 29.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…cbf2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 22.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…96a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 212 | 45.8%97 W · 115 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.