MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x211c7c02c66618438f452c23607b0bd41d848af3f4212c6a8a9167ff4c695081
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5234…4c4fbacked Over | 53c | 27,091$14,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,358.1 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 47c | 13,886$6,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,359.61 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 52c | 9,663$5,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,024.92 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 47c | 7,010$3,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,695.2 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 5,350$2,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,832.47 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…c8d3backed Over | 53c | 4,350$2,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,305.5 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 3,819$1,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.8 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Under | 48c | 3,646$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.83 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.66 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 48c | 1,550$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.76 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 48c | 1,006$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.96 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 47c | 999.77$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.88 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 453.89$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 58c | 408.02$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.37 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 48c | 402.36$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.23 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 53c | 384.2$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.63 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 47c | 316.1$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.53 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…b387backed Under | 48c | 304.75$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 53c | 301.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 53c | 266.92$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.47 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 47c | 249.62$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9101…78ddbacked Under | 78c | 240$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 47c | 231.89$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.9 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 200.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 249 | 50.6%126 W · 123 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 48c | 143.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 53c | 122.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Over | 53c | 102.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 47c | 72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 53c | 66.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6be…f675backed Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…8e4abacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…09d0backed Under | 71c | 56.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 47c | 56.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…b9d8backed Under | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 151 | 38.4%58 W · 93 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Over | 53c | 45.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5cdebacked Under | 53c | 39.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Over | 53c | 28.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 54c | 24.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.