Movies · resolved market
Will 'Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire' gross less than $50m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27964ccae371e5a1b52683a5898636df00040f081bcfc371adea0cf6454441bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f6f…726ebacked Yes | 6c | 5,688$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.89 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked Yes | 11c | 4,306$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 7c | 3,485$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.62 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c5…9256backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 6c | 2,555$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,008$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 13c | 425$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3693…c9afbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 15c | 325.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7765…43d0backed Yes | 6c | 314.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…8ea4backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 17c | 170.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire' gross less than $50m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire' gross between $50m-57.5m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire' gross between $57.5m-65m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire' gross more than $65m opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.