Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27b77e420619fa2a4f2aa0c86fa22892fb5a0c5b288dec21db121eadb78d221e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 12c | 885.21$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 9c | 741.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…2adcbacked Yes | 24c | 550.16$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 9c | 454.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…cb78backed Yes | 14c | 448.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 13c | 372.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 20c | 327.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 16c | 310.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 208.17$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 9c | 194.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 190.95$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 14c | 184.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 76c | 149.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 21c | 132$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 12c | 117.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 116.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 24c | 104.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 104.12$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 23c | 100.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 23c | 78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 68.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 23c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 57.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 20c | 52.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 78c | 27.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.