Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1def7d045d6004257e079ab28b0d75ec08549eb77e97b51b97dfb6b281878be3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 66c | 1,416$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.35 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,389$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.22 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 996.13$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 66c | 971.4$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.41 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 44c | 943.9$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 42c | 919.97$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.03 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 897.76$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 41c | 731.29$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.57 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 30c | 707.78$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.01 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 678.11$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 78c | 612.57$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.57 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 45c | 604.54$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.61 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 65c | 553.81$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.27 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 47c | 528.89$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.37 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 506$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 502.67$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 25c | 490.93$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.42 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe81…4fb6backed Yes | 72c | 454.41$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.37 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 56c | 385.93$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.52 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 360.71$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.71 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked No | 43c | 357.72$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 48c | 347.14$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.83 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 72c | 334$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.77 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 24c | 296.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.83 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…cb78backed Yes | 19c | 285.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…de09backed Yes | 61c | 280.13$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.13 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 49c | 267.75$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.33 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 27c | 267.64$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.43 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 61c | 264.08$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.83 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 35c | 229.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.4 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 226.15$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 223.92$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 25c | 219.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.46 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 28c | 209$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.26 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 39c | 198.53$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.07 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…9cf0backed Yes | 27c | 194.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 65c | 186.76$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 67c | 182.73$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 172.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 17c | 165.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.09 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 61c | 163.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 8c | 162.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 31c | 161.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 160.22$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 39c | 159.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 26c | 146$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.28 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 144.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked No | 46c | 139.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 139.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 67c | 136.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 135.89$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 131$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 62c | 126.64$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 56c | 118.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 115.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 25c | 112.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 56c | 109.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 74c | 108.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 32c | 101.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked Yes | 65c | 101.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 69c | 101.12$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…e382backed Yes | 10c | 100.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.29 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 99.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 50c | 99.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 96.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 93.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 46c | 91.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…dc18backed No | 22c | 91.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 29c | 88.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 49c | 85.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 49c | 85.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 30c | 83.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 29c | 83.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 74c | 82.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed No | 28c | 80.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 37c | 80.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 28c | 79.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 32c | 78.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x667c…559cbacked Yes | 44c | 75.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 70.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 68.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 64c | 68.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 43c | 65.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 31c | 65.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 32c | 64.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 53c | 61.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 51c | 61.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 60.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 44c | 59.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 37c | 58.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 47c | 57.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 57.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.