Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48c620773c923958a3d8bb996809aca2824eebd13b8c3dc9891f97d4e65fafed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 902.4$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.71 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 869.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 856.99$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 21c | 827.87$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.56 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 74c | 711.31$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.74 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 2c | 690.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 673.07$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.29 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1f…ede0backed Yes | 17c | 641.09$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 26c | 533.4$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.95 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 14c | 500.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 438.54$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 15c | 402.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 15c | 377.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 37c | 350.1$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.85 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 4c | 349.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 34c | 330.9$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.37 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 325.07$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 12c | 316.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 294.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 18c | 281.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 35c | 280.07$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 5c | 278.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 254.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 241.71$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 15c | 230.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…7badbacked Yes | 32c | 224.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 221.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 23c | 200.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 27c | 186.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 26c | 182.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 180$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 43c | 172.42$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 23c | 160.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 160.22$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 46c | 158.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 145.13$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 65c | 138.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 35c | 131.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 77c | 130.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 24c | 127.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 126$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 115.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 22c | 112.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 42c | 109.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 28c | 108$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 29c | 104.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 38c | 104.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 101.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 40c | 99.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 93.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 93.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 92.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 30c | 90.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 28c | 90.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…2162backed Yes | 34c | 89.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 68c | 83.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 67c | 81.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 81.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 80.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 28c | 76.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 70.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 25c | 69.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 17c | 69.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 38c | 66.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 64c | 65.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 65.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 67c | 62.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…0489backed Yes | 32c | 62.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 60.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 58.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 57.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cc…5011backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 56.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 67c | 56.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked No | 72c | 56.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…f5e2backed Yes | 40c | 56.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 66c | 54.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 54.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 54.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 34c | 53.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963c…c15bbacked No | 75c | 53.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…49f8backed Yes | 38c | 52.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…cb78backed No | 60c | 50.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…de09backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 27c | 48.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 48.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…efdfbacked No | 75c | 46.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 46.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 25c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8c…b29dbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…863bbacked No | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…f39bbacked No | 62c | 44.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 33c | 43.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 28c | 42.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.