MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27f23b8245e8929df5b79d1517deadd974268169d574c34be9394bfda42945cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 57c | 1,761$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.61 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 1,225$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 44c | 1,181$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.89 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 761.54$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.46 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 46c | 606.32$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.73 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 55c | 512.02$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.93 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 45c | 511.28$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.3 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 54c | 476.48$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.18 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 56c | 288.57$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.04 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 43c | 236$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 51c | 194.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 53c | 193.24$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.21 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 56c | 191.24$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 54c | 135.06$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…a9c7backed Under | 48c | 120.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Under | 49c | 106.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 51c | 95.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 76.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 74.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 44c | 68.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 44c | 67.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 62c | 67.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 52c | 60.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 53c | 57.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 57c | 54.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Under | 46c | 52.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 49.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…b9d8backed Under | 57c | 48.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 151 | 38.4%58 W · 93 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 48.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 59c | 40.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 54c | 36.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Under | 58c | 34.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 150 | 37.3%56 W · 94 L | -15.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfd…a4bbbacked Under | 45c | 31.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…7672backed Under | 62c | 31.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 49c | 26.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…74debacked Under | 47c | 26.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 42c | 26.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…4a98backed Under | 52c | 25.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 45c | 25.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 47c | 25.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over | 48c | 23.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Over | 54c | 21.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 19.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-5.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.