MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf06024361b2290a737306335943b444bdd0e379938b02d5dfa82016d0eab1f4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 432.12$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.17 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Mariners | 28c | 300.01$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 212.22$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 200.45$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.18 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 135.65$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 127.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 125.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 123.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 117.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 68.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 68.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 65.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 59.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 58.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 48.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 41.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 40.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 67c | 39.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 29.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 26.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 23.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 19.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-5.5)Minnesota Twins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.