Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27fd4a4ebe399535854c709879c5fe6ccbf5b48af1d6881b376662be3b7456b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 570.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 388.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 19c | 353.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 9c | 307.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 19c | 294.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 8c | 231.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 9c | 210.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 210.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 198.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 19c | 178.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 22c | 168.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 167.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 12c | 164.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…6fe9backed Yes | 19c | 156.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 141.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 15c | 135.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 15c | 127.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 23c | 99.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 89.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 87.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 14c | 74.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 26c | 73.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 14c | 71.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 22c | 49.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 69c | 35.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 79c | 24.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 76c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 80c | 14.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 71c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 57°F or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.