Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f27d54094f4106804f251ed9fb464e35432fc417a1774e22b80ee548bbd722f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd083…d678backed No | 0c | 15,039$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8c…f5e2backed Yes | 66c | 731.4$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.38 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 12c | 611.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 8c | 587.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 453.2$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 65c | 444.83$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.95 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 66c | 377.56$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.49 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 18c | 353.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 240.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 213.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 32c | 208$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 152.14$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 145.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 46c | 130.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 114.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 56c | 101.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 28c | 99.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 45c | 96.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 36c | 82.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 66c | 75.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 26c | 74.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa061…2c51backed No | 62c | 66.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 55c | 61.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 32c | 58.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 76c | 57.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 45c | 50.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 27c | 48.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 55c | 48.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 37c | 48.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 64c | 40.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…e7b8backed Yes | 72c | 40.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d35…6a1fbacked Yes | 75c | 39.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 41c | 35.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 50c | 35.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 32.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 44c | 32.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeac…2970backed No | 59c | 32.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 64c | 30.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 44c | 29.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 35c | 28.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 56c | 28.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 70c | 27.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 62c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…615abacked No | 44c | 24.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…4b7bbacked No | 69c | 24.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked No | 61c | 23.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 73c | 21.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 80c | 21.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 57c | 20.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 74c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 59c | 17.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4dd…8744backed Yes | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 57°F or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.