Fifa International · resolved market
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28226b6675803b7e42eaa2b90b3dd52a391ac88eb24931ec62fd515680e1e06d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 51,804$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.54 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 1c | 4,167$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 2c | 3,264$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…d9edbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1634…8773backed Yes | 1c | 1,786$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ab…4f65backed Yes | 6c | 1,686$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 3c | 1,460$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…645bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,433$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x778f…e824backed Yes | 4c | 996.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…11aabacked Yes | 1c | 958.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…a7febacked Yes | 4c | 792.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e9…f1bcbacked Yes | 4c | 742.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 15.5%11 W · 60 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2217…1660backed Yes | 6c | 715.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 635 | 44.4%282 W · 353 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…4e37backed Yes | 4c | 712$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…ec69backed Yes | 2c | 650$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +302.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 6c | 506.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 363 | 35.8%130 W · 233 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 6c | 458.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 342 | 38.6%132 W · 210 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 9c | 345$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 339 | 37.5%127 W · 212 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd26b…b09fbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 357 | 14%50 W · 307 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe212…2d07backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 35.6%31 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…b5bdbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda78…393abacked Yes | 7c | 282.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195d…0a8bbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c7…3c77backed Yes | 8c | 193.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98bf…65debacked Yes | 10c | 190.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao?this page
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?Yes won
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao?No won
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao?No won
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao?No won
- Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Curaçao?No won
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao?No won
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao?No won
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Curaçao?No won
- Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Curaçao?No won
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao?No won
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao?No won
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao?No won
- Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Curaçao?No won
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao?No won
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao?No won
- Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.