Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-11-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2832b058262be53e280430f474efff7772206e81966ede5d1ecf3d020c8ec918
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 42c | 9,338$3,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,892.55 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked No | 56c | 5,299$2,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,348.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 68c | 3,940$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.26 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 16c | 3,489$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.27 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed No | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,614$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.27 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked No | 58c | 1,567$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.07 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,072$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.49 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 60c | 983$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.8 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 44c | 973$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.87 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 54c | 617.44$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.22 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +17.9wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 41c | 566.08$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.09 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x447e…9710backed Yes | 16c | 488.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Yes | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 42c | 466.67$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 16c | 370.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…2da5backed No | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 36c | 339.26$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.05 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Yes | 25c | 336.42$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 12c | 320.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 72c | 270$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…4a13backed No | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 16c | 210.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 60c | 204.07$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 44cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 63c | 187.77$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…f395backed No | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 15c | 149.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 130 | 16.2%21 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 28c | 146.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Yes | 13c | 104.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked No | 52c | 97.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbd…c4e4backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 39c | 71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4c…d5dbbacked No | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…a7b5backed Yes | 45c | 57.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed No | 59c | 54.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 41c | 49.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f4…8706backed Yes | 45c | 43.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…1975backed No | 51c | 39.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92be…d717backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…41a8backed No | 65c | 33.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed No | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked No | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-11-29?this page
- Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.