Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf99acf85c5bfaf276e1fbfaf0127159e4891b63cb2f4a085c223ccb761728538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 11,131$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,151.58 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 74c | 5,360$3,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,966.4 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Yes | 32c | 3,121$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,121.43 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 23c | 2,390$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.49 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 1,310$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.3 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 68c | 1,107$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.49 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 24c | 360.34$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.03 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed No | 76c | 342$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.92 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 7c | 251.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 52c | 151.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 51c | 121.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…2d71backed No | 77c | 120.06$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 51c | 105.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 22c | 89.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 74c | 83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Yes | 13c | 77.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…0ea4backed Yes | 33c | 45.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1a…076bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…d6f1backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x301e…ab22backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 77c | 13.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-29?No won
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-11-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.