La Liga · resolved market
UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x286afdc031c8c11717bc20db6955f9413fc9ee27f9d898bfa54aa4f78ee8808a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 36c | 5,876$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 4,311$2,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.47 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 2,539$2,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.82 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 36c | 2,034$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.08 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 65c | 1,933$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.63 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed Under | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 10c | 1,337$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 72c | 402.66$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Over | 30c | 395.66$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +8.2wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 64c | 229.19$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…290abacked Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 62c | 134.93$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 27.2%31 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 20c | 79.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 192 | 58.9%113 W · 79 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…087dbacked Under | 62c | 48.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…1826backed Over | 46c | 43.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 28c | 42.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 202 | 53.5%108 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 39c | 38.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…530dbacked Under | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…4539backed Over | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 440 | 39.3%173 W · 267 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 36c | 31.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 35c | 29.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Under | 68c | 26.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 67c | 23.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 62c | 21.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1f…7b4bbacked Under | 68c | 21.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: UD Las Palmas (-2.5)UD Almería won
- UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 0.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 4.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.