La Liga · resolved market
UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83e2605fbf60cf00626cabd96554a735da8ab3b171f35ee5c53bf092724bed2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 9,297$4,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,436.39 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 200 | 54%108 W · 92 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 3,518$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.33 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 59c | 3,000$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 43c | 2,918$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667.82 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 18c | 2,778$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Under | 18c | 2,492$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.56 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +9.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 53c | 1,584$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.3 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…6d99backed Over | 49c | 914.42$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…cf7cbacked Under | 20c | 737.2$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.44 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 66c | 621.21$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.21 | 223 | 57%127 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 80c | 571.09$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.27 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 19c | 526.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 13c | 459$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 79c | 429.51$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 33c | 416.53$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.45 | 834 | 44.6%372 W · 462 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 74c | 337.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 331.71$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.07 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 15c | 211.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Under | 18c | 178.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…d8a5backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 35c | 153.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Under | 49c | 102.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 100.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 54c | 89.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 192 | 58.9%113 W · 79 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 53c | 76.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 227 | 60.4%137 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 80c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…3e60backed Over | 68c | 50.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 139 | 58.3%81 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 45c | 42.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Under | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 247 | 57.5%142 W · 105 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 39c | 35.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 261 | 54.4%142 W · 119 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…b1bfbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 81 | 70.4%57 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 117 | 69.2%81 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: UD Las Palmas (-2.5)UD Almería won
- UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 0.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 4.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.