South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x288edbbec2d8e972d3fffb8390956c18f376e7b22848217f61533b835bde0653
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 1c | 5,859$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 2,578$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.61 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 30c | 1,910$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.14 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…6b95backed Over | 41c | 1,732$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.95 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Over | 70c | 1,425$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068b…2106backed Over | 70c | 993.39$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.8wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 64c | 672.32$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.29 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 30c | 660.31$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.72 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 51c | 585.39$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.84 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 51c | 470$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.7 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 465$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.15 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 50c | 455.8$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.95 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 50c | 455.7$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.85 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…a3eebacked Over | 70c | 420.55$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 138 | 28.3%39 W · 99 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 31c | 251.79$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.65 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 67c | 238.98$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 30c | 237.3$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.11 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 71c | 233.93$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d06…755bbacked Under | 31c | 209.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.41 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 31c | 151.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 30c | 89.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 69c | 85.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 53c | 75.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 30c | 69.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 31c | 46.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…1d04backed Under | 50c | 39.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf32…6cf3backed Under | 39c | 35.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 61c | 20.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da9…a6cdbacked Over | 70c | 20.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Peñarol (-1.5)Independiente Santa Fe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.