South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CA Peñarol (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8d39cc3f4c639c16a553b98ad05c5d4a94352a64cf6e31a9c0973c7b3e5a4d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Independiente Santa Feof CA Peñarol, Independiente Santa Fe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed CA Peñarol | 29c | 2,192$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.29 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Independiente Santa Fe | 73c | 1,721$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.05 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed CA Peñarol | 27c | 1,105$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.29 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Independiente Santa Fe | 76c | 1,100$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.12 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed CA Peñarol | 26c | 652$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.52 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked CA Peñarol | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 14.5%18 W · 106 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 74c | 416.07$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.01 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed CA Peñarol | 24c | 388.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked CA Peñarol | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 138 | 28.3%39 W · 99 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed CA Peñarol | 24c | 217.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Independiente Santa Fe | 72c | 183.48$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed CA Peñarol | 27c | 180$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed CA Peñarol | 27c | 144.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked CA Peñarol | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed CA Peñarol | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Independiente Santa Fe | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed CA Peñarol | 25c | 63.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked CA Peñarol | 32c | 57.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Independiente Santa Fe | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Independiente Santa Fe | 70c | 53.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 73c | 49.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc51f…891bbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 70c | 23.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Independiente Santa Fe | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x967b…46babacked Independiente Santa Fe | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…8ddabacked Independiente Santa Fe | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Independiente Santa Fe | 69c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CA Peñarol (-1.5)this page
- CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.