Bundesliga · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28968b80c0fe197fb05188b21b9e77ad30090077b8d961574051bfabbcf70106
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 8,436$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 78c | 4,000$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 3,327$2,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.77 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 28c | 981.43$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.84 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 19c | 515.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 18c | 233$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…d27ebacked Yes | 20c | 215$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 28c | 200.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 74c | 199.9$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 7c | 184.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 20c | 175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…9d05backed Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 22cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 30c | 145.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…d934backed Yes | 20c | 101.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x943d…7aa1backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 80c | 77.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…b417backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +10.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed No | 68c | 26.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.65 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?this page
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-11-23?Yes won
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.