Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e057a3fc37004746695a76f931b1a672a23d0f479346fba9e177826dcf788af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 1c | 2,403$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 1,179$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.07 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 15c | 1,172$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.8 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…fc17backed Yes | 15c | 750$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 14c | 637.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 15c | 635$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 8c | 582.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Yes | 15c | 563.26$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +5.4wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 15c | 555.26$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 15c | 498$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 15c | 443.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa751…ba09backed Yes | 15c | 354$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7a…6ce4backed Yes | 15c | 347$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 17c | 216.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 16c | 207.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…5f44backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…63d9backed Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 149.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…baa4backed Yes | 16c | 126$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de2…3adbbacked Yes | 16c | 122.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…1437backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 18c | 77.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e80…ee89backed Yes | 16c | 71.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-11-23?this page
- Will RB Leipzig vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-11-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.