World Politics · resolved market
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28b3b52fd518498b8ecab082e9d966dbf199eee7a9f044d140ed23113c3890b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 5,258$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 4,768$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d49…ccdbbacked Yes | 6c | 3,426$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…5afcbacked Yes | 5c | 2,668$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 2,492$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…21a9backed Yes | 6c | 2,315$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…b8c4backed Yes | 5c | 1,900$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d0…e9aebacked Yes | 5c | 1,867$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba7…4ab1backed Yes | 1c | 1,706$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1c…4301backed Yes | 1c | 1,653$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3150…6070backed Yes | 4c | 1,375$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,344$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…6b08backed Yes | 6c | 1,233$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…c104backed Yes | 4c | 1,220$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…7fbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,218$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 2c | 1,199$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…6c78backed Yes | 6c | 1,171$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…7615backed Yes | 4c | 1,108$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…5250backed Yes | 6c | 912$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7763…569cbacked Yes | 6c | 856$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…7dd0backed Yes | 6c | 799$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb7…f2a6backed Yes | 5c | 756$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…c05fbacked Yes | 4c | 688$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…eefdbacked Yes | 6c | 670$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x853b…df08backed Yes | 4c | 649$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881d…bf9dbacked Yes | 5c | 649$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a37…214ebacked Yes | 5c | 620$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…3e00backed Yes | 2c | 611.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…aacdbacked Yes | 5c | 557$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab32…e7fbbacked Yes | 6c | 505$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?this page
- Will Alba Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?No won
- Will Scottish Conservatives win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?No won
- Will Scottish Green Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?No won
- Will Scottish Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?No won
- Will Scottish Liberal Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?No won
- Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?Yes won
- Will Sovereignty Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.