Australian A League · resolved market
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28ee53007bde30cea9b3b3edcbc46020727d4ff46f3379e846d0f1988fa19606
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 2,510$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,083.4 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 60c | 2,090$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.23 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…71eebacked Over | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 1,314$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.49 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 41c | 499.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 59c | 494.06$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…244bbacked Over | 52c | 380.2$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 18c | 298$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.36 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb538…7a1ebacked Over | 39c | 151.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 20c | 147.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.71 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…6cd3backed Over | 39c | 138.26$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 11c | 115.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 43c | 108$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…cf23backed Over | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 19c | 93.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…106cbacked Over | 20c | 90.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 18c | 74.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 46c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Over | 20c | 57.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 57c | 47.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 79c | 32.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 80c | 28.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191a…2ea6backed Over | 39c | 28.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 77c | 23.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 19.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.