Australian A League · resolved market
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x763d158aae5a1f69d94a1d2ba8db112a1f54615e56413ac0f76ea2c7e141eb0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 2,237$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.28 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 55c | 623.63$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.82 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 59c | 590.94$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.94 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 58c | 572$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 57c | 529.08$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.08 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 59c | 505.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.41 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 41c | 494.15$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.91 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 40c | 421.09$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.87 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 353$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.88 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Under | 41c | 254.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 62c | 249.98$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 51c | 216.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 58c | 192.4$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over | 59c | 170.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 57c | 149.12$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…6fd3backed Over | 59c | 140$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 126.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…cf5bbacked Over | 60c | 121.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…ee4dbacked Under | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 59c | 101.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 41c | 88.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Under | 43c | 88.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 42c | 64.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Under | 43c | 40.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 56c | 39.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 58c | 37.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 41c | 25.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.