MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28f6a7fd8a7c86ce116eb93ceb0f08f80bbc611b8aa652e0d67f83d6f7c3a22d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x986b…12e9backed Over | 46c | 13,071$5,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,116.15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 35c | 2,982$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.16 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 55c | 2,824$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550.11 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 55c | 2,730$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.33 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 46c | 2,527$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.67 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 2,262$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 55c | 2,000$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 1,430$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.67 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Over | 44c | 1,190$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.4 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Under | 1c | 1,180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Under | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 54c | 972$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.88 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 45c | 902.67$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.89 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 22c | 898$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.31 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 27c | 822.37$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 54c | 647.41$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.6 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 529.27$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.39 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 55c | 453.05$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.18 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 422.33$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.75 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 53c | 389.55$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.46 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 19c | 346$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x469d…1a62backed Under | 32c | 216$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 41c | 99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 92.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a60cbacked Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 54c | 79.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 77.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 42c | 66.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 27c | 60.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 55c | 55.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 41c | 51.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 55c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…9b64backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 56c | 35.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 36c | 30.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 68c | 30.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 78c | 29.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…be63backed Over | 68c | 24.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1434…d63bbacked Under | 54c | 20.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.